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From Climatic Drivers to Antarctic Ice Sheet Response: Improving Accuracy in Sea Level Rise Projections (CLIM2Ant)

From Climatic Drivers to Antarctic Ice Sheet Response: Improving Accuracy in Sea Level Rise Projections (CLIM2Ant)

, An ice edge in Antarctic. Photo: Eva Nowatzki (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu), 1973 inset, ,

An ice edge in Antarctic. Photo: Eva Nowatzki (distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)

Sea level rise, mainly caused by the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and the expansion of seawater when it warms, is one of the biggest threats imposed on us by climate warming. We expect sea levels to rise by 0.3 – 1 meter by the end of this century, depending on the emission scenario. Still, if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions remains very high, uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) behavior could mean a rise of as much as 5 meters by 2150.

Such a high increase in sea level would be catastrophic for many low-lying regions across the globe. But how likely will it be? Predicting how much of the AIS might melt is critically important for governments and policymakers, aiding them in strategizing greenhouse emissions reduction and mitigation.

The AIS mainly gains mass through accumulating snow and loses it through its interactions with the surrounding ocean. Since 1992, the AIS has lost its mass at around 100bn tons annually, driven primarily by warmer deep waters reaching and melting its floating ice shelves.

Predictions about the AIS's mass change are based on ice sheet models that use outputs from climate models. While climate models are good at predicting large-scale climate changes, they struggle e.g. with small-scale oceanic processes that bring heat to melt the ice, leading to substantial uncertainties in projections of Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise. Climate models also suggest compensating mass change mechanisms under climate warming in some regions, e.g. increased oceanic melting and more snowfall.

By combining glaciology and oceanography, sophisticated numerical modeling, and statistical analysis techniques, this project (CLIM2Ant) will improve projections of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise, both on a circumpolar scale and a regional scale. Our project outcomes will directly contribute to future assessments of ice sheet sea-level contributions.

NORCE contributes to the project with Antarctic ice sheet projections, leveraging our expertise in ice sheet modelling and ice sheet-climate interactions.

Contact

Heiko Goelzer

Research Professor - Bergen

heig@norceresearch.no
+47 56 10 75 19

Project facts

Name

From Climatic Drivers to Antarctic Ice Sheet Response: Improving Accuracy in Sea Level Rise Projections (CLIM2Ant)

Status

Active

Duration

01.01.24 - 01.01.28

Location

Bergen

Total budget

9.999.000 NOK

Research areas

Research group

Funding

Research Council of Norway (RCN)

Prosjekteier

Akvaplan-niva AS

Project members

Qin Zhou
Kenichi Matsuoka
Tore Hattermann

Samarbeidspartnere

Akvaplan-niva AS, Norsk Polarinstitutt,

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