Training to evacuate 50,000 people in Bergen

Christine Meyer, Chief Commissioner of Bergen is pleased that Bergen can now test its preparedness digitally with a unique tool developed by NORCE researchers.

The tool is a social digital twin that offers entirely new opportunities to train for crisis scenarios. The goal is to strengthen municipalities’ ability to plan, exercise, and make decisions in complex crises, including large-scale evacuations.

– For Bergen municipality, this project significantly strengthens our preparedness. By developing the social digital twin together with NORCE, we are creating something that benefits not only Bergen, but can also be used by other municipalities. In this way, we strengthen total preparedness across Norway, says Meyer.

In addition to Bergen, Tromsø and Vadsø are participating in the project. The project is carried out in collaboration with European Digital Innovation Hub Oceanopolis and Resilience Center Denmark, and is funded by the Research Council of Norway. KS, the Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities, is also involved.

– How many people need assistance to be evacuated? Where do they live? Which neighborhoods have specific challenges? The data about us as individuals is not used directly in a way that makes us identifiable. Instead, we create synthetic agents representing the population, says project leader Roger Normann.

He adds that a social digital twin is far more flexible than existing solutions. Municipalities can develop new functionality over time, and the technology is significantly more cost-effective.

NORCE researchers use large amounts of data about Norway and Bergen, combined with machine learning and AI, to simulate the entire population. The virtual population follows the city’s daily rhythms—going to work, attending school, staying at home—and behaves as realistically as possible. They can even experience emotions such as fear or anger.

– The difference between using AI alone and building this social twin is that an AI-generated model would be a black box. With this approach, we can see what happens behind the scenes and understand which data is being used, says Normann.

He emphasizes the potential:

– The real value is that by practicing preparedness digitally, municipalities can plan better and reduce the number of injuries and fatalities if an incident occurs.

A new center for preparedness

Meyer recently visited NORCE in Bergen to learn more about the project and to be introduced to NORCE’s new center for defense, societal security, and emergency preparedness.

The aim of this center is to develop knowledge and solutions that address the needs of both public and private actors in defense, societal security, and civil preparedness.

– Making preparedness exercises cheaper and faster is only part of the benefit. Equally important is flexibility: municipalities can vary timing, geography, and seasons in simulated crises. This provides a far more realistic picture of how an event would unfold, says Normann.

Climate change, geopolitical instability, and an increasingly complex society are creating new types of risks. The social digital twin is an important step toward addressing these challenges.

It also responds to priorities in Bergen’s municipal plan “Et nystemt Bergen,” where societal security and digital development are key to strengthening public safety.

Research foundation

The research on digital twins at NORCE is driven by the Centre for Modeling Social Systems (CMSS) in Kristiansand, led by Patrycja Antosz.

– This research is becoming increasingly important. Norwegian municipalities are facing more complex risks than before, linked to climate change, demographic changes, geopolitical uncertainty, and society’s growing dependence on critical infrastructure, says Normann.

The CMSS researchers have already worked on several related projects. For example, they have created a digital replica of Kragerø, which now forms the technological foundation for the social digital twin for preparedness and societal security.

Three core technologies

The social digital twin integrates three main technology tracks:

• Machine learning-based synthesis of population, service, and infrastructure data layers
• Agent-based modeling (ABM) of social processes
• A language model-based interface that makes the solution accessible to non-programmers

NORCE will also conduct follow-up research to study how the social digital twin integrates with municipal governance systems and how it performs in real-world preparedness and security contexts.