Mechanism and prediction of the new Arctic climate system (MAPARC)

Mechanism and prediction of the new Arctic climate system (MAPARC)

The Sixth Assessment Report produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2021 stated that “the linkage between the Arctic warming and the mid-latitude circulation is an example of contrasting lines of evidence that cannot yet be reconciled.” To better understand and predict Arctic changes and their relationship with the climate systems at mid- and high latitudes, the bilateral project – MAPARC - brings an innovative collaboration between Norway and China. The ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere (snow and ice) in the Arctic have already seen, and will continue experiencing changes that have never occurred in that region in the past century. Some aspects of climate systems fall into the conditions that are furthest away from what were previously ‘normal’. The Arctic is dominated by longer open-water periods, thinner and more fragile sea-ice, stronger oceanic and atmospheric warming, changes in atmospheric circulation and more frequent extremes, indicating an emerging new Arctic. MAPARC will obtain credible knowledge on the causes and impacts of new aspects of Arctic changes to demystify the Arctic-midlatitude climate linkage. These knowledges will guide us to develop and adopt advanced prediction methods that work better for the new Arctic. To do that, MAPARC will: (1) quantify the changes of Arctic air-sea-ice interaction due to the increasing of thinner and easier thawing Arctic sea ice, (2) identify whether or how deeper Arctic warming can affect the climate across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, (3) determine the changes of atmospheric circulation regimes and their impacts on extreme weather events, and (4) develop new prediction methods and models to improve the skill and reliability of monthly to seasonal prediction of mid- and high latitudes climate. MAPARC will consolidate the almost 20 years’ Norwegian-Chinese partnership in climate research, which has been established at the platform of Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre.


Aleksi Nummelin

Senior Researcher - Bergen

+47 56 10 75 64

Project facts


Mechanism and prediction of the new Arctic climate system (MAPARC)




01.06.22 - 31.05.26



Total budget

10.000.000 NOK

Research areas

Research group



Research Council of Norway (RCN)


Universitetet i Bergen

Project members

Shengping He
Ke Fan
Tore Furevik
Helene Reinertsen Langehaug
Camille Li
Asgeir Sorteberg
Gudrun Sylte
Zhiqing Xu
Baoqiang Tian


Universitetet i Bergen, Nansen Senter for Miljø og Fjernmåling, NORCE, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University