PhD student
- Bergen
mahe@norceresearch.no
+47 56 10 75 24
1,000 more farmers now receive Manuel’s climate forecasts in their inbox: helping them make better decisions when drought strikes
The drought summer of 2018 was a disaster for Norwegian agriculture. A total of 2 billion NOK was paid out in climate damage compensation. Manuel Hempel wondered whether the impact could have been reduced if communication between farmers and climate scientists had been better—so he started a newsletter.
PhD candidate Manuel Hempel at NORCE has in recent years worked closely with farmers to build knowledge about climate risk and how probability-based long-term forecasts can support operational decisions in agriculture.
A Thousand New Subscribers
It began as a project within the agriculture node of Climate Futures, a center for research-driven innovation. Hempel conducted workshops and focus group meetings with farmers, administrators, and agricultural advisors. The goal was to understand what kind of weather information they needed in their daily work.
After the data collection phase ended, Hempel wanted to stay in touch with the farmers, so he began sending out a weekly newsletter. The interest has been enormous, and Hempel now sends a weekly newsletter to 1,500 subscribers in agriculture, reindeer herding, and public administration. In addition, the Norwegian Agricultural Advisory Service often shares information from Manuel in their own newsletters.
The aim is to shorten the distance between climate scientists and farmers, so that farmers can make decisions earlier the next time drought (or flooding) occurs.
– The forecasts cover all of Norway but focus on agricultural areas in the south. The challenge is explaining to users how probability-based forecasts work compared to weather forecasts. They don’t predict what the weather will be, but the likelihood of different scenarios occurring, says Hempel. This is a tool for making better decisions, but farmers must also consider time, finances, and labor availability.
Reindeer herders also see the value in the newsletters. For them, it’s important to anticipate whether grazing conditions will become difficult and if supplementary feeding needs to be planned. County Governors in the northern counties and the Norwegian Environment Agency have also participated in focus groups to explore how best to support reindeer herders.
Source:
Manuel Hempel / Climate Futures
The long-term temperature forecast from May 2nd showed a high probability of above-normal temperatures for the entire month. This turned out to be accurate. May was very warm in large parts of the country.
Early Spring in 2025
In 2025, the agricultural season started early. It was very dry in Eastern Norway at the beginning of May. The illustration above shows the long-term temperature forecast from May 2nd. The forecast indicated a high probability of above-normal temperatures for the entire month. This proved to be accurate. May turned out to be very warm in large parts of the country. So far, we do not yet know how the growing season will develop overall:
– In 2018, poor communication between researchers and farmers meant that warnings about a dry and hot summer didn’t reach them in time. I want to build a bridge between climate scientists and farmers so that farmers can make decisions earlier the next time drought (or flooding) occurs, Hempel concludes.
If you're interested in probability-based long-term forecasts, you can subscribe to Hempel’s newsletter here: https://mailchi.mp/c6cbf4adc73...
Climate Futures is a Centre for Research-based Innovation (SFI) that develops climate forecasting from 10 days to 10 years ahead to support climate risk management in weather- and climate-sensitive sectors. Our goal is to establish long-term collaboration between private industry, the public sector, service and business organizations, and research institutions to jointly address one of the greatest challenges of our time.
Climate Futures, led by NORCE, began on October 1, 2020, and is closely connected to the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. The other research partners include the University of Bergen, the Norwegian School of Economics and SNF, the Norwegian Computing Center, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the Nansen Center, and Statistics Norway.
Contact person
Manuel Hempel
