New Forecast Model
The new forecast model EURO1k is developed by the Swiss company Meteomatics. This model is combined with data collected by small, unmanned weather drones – so-called Meteodrones – which can fly into the atmosphere and gather detailed measurements.
Senior Researcher Øistein Johnsen used data from 249 meteorological stations as the basis for a comparative analysis of the performance of the EURO1k weather forecasting product from Meteomatics and the MEPS model from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The goal is to provide an objective analysis of EURO1k’s potential role as a weather information tool in the Army’s UAV operations.
– A qualitative assessment and objective statistical comparison show that EURO1k outperforms MEPS across all selected meteorological parameters relevant to the Gondul project. On average, EURO1k provides more accurate predictions than MEPS 2.5 km in over 70% of cases. Conversely, MEPS 2.5 km is considered more accurate in about 27% of cases.
Johnsen emphasizes that the conclusion is preliminary, as the data set is still limited. The report will be updated as more weather data is accumulated during the next phases of the project.
Dr. Martin Fengler, CEO and founder of Meteomatics, is very pleased with the results of the analysis:
– We are excited to see how NORCE has evaluated our premium weather model EURO1k and are even more excited about their findings. This proves that our models make a huge difference compared to conventional weather models, says Fengler.
EURO1k was also compared with MEPS 1.0 km, a model that uses assimilation of nearby stations to make adjustments. However, this model has some weaknesses that make it less suitable for the purpose: data is limited to near-ground level, and forecasts are only issued starting four hours ahead.