Senior Researcher
- Haugesund
oijo@norceresearch.no
+47 412 42 333
NORCE has assessed the accuracy of weather forecasts
The NORCE project Gondul has compared weather forecasts from Meteomatics' EURO1k model with the MEPS model provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The analysis shows that EURO1k delivers more accurate forecasts than MEPS in over 70 percent of cases for key weather factors such as wind, temperature, humidity, pressure, and precipitation.
In a new report, Senior Researcher Øistein Johnsen has analyzed which weather forecasting model provides the best decision-making basis for risk assessment and drone (UAV) operations in cold climates.
– More accurate weather data can mean the difference between success and failure in a military operation, especially in the Arctic where the weather can change rapidly, says project leader Nils Håheim-Saers.
Source:
Project Gondul (based on grapics by the Norwegian Armed Forces)
The project focuses on quantifying and concretizing the value that more precise weather and surface data from the EURO1k model can contribute to planning and decision-making processes (IPB/PBP) in the military land domain.
New Forecast Model
The new forecast model EURO1k is developed by the Swiss company Meteomatics. This model is combined with data collected by small, unmanned weather drones – so-called Meteodrones – which can fly into the atmosphere and gather detailed measurements.
Senior Researcher Øistein Johnsen used data from 249 meteorological stations as the basis for a comparative analysis of the performance of the EURO1k weather forecasting product from Meteomatics and the MEPS model from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The goal is to provide an objective analysis of EURO1k’s potential role as a weather information tool in the Army’s UAV operations.
– A qualitative assessment and objective statistical comparison show that EURO1k outperforms MEPS across all selected meteorological parameters relevant to the Gondul project. On average, EURO1k provides more accurate predictions than MEPS 2.5 km in over 70% of cases. Conversely, MEPS 2.5 km is considered more accurate in about 27% of cases.
Johnsen emphasizes that the conclusion is preliminary, as the data set is still limited. The report will be updated as more weather data is accumulated during the next phases of the project.
Dr. Martin Fengler, CEO and founder of Meteomatics, is very pleased with the results of the analysis:
– We are excited to see how NORCE has evaluated our premium weather model EURO1k and are even more excited about their findings. This proves that our models make a huge difference compared to conventional weather models, says Fengler.
EURO1k was also compared with MEPS 1.0 km, a model that uses assimilation of nearby stations to make adjustments. However, this model has some weaknesses that make it less suitable for the purpose: data is limited to near-ground level, and forecasts are only issued starting four hours ahead.
Source:
Øistein Johnsen
Data from 249 meteorological stations was used as the basis for a comparative analysis.
Next Phase: Meteodrones
The next phase of the research project begins in summer 2025 when Meteodrones start collecting weather data in Norway. In the long term, Meteomatics aims to establish a network of 30 such drones in Norway.
NORCE’s goal is to determine how useful this technology can be for planning and conducting military land operations in cold and demanding climates, especially regarding the use of drones.
Project Gondul is a scientific research project linked to the EURO1k weather forecasting model from Meteomatics and its data collection capabilities via Meteodrones. The project focuses on quantifying and concretizing the value that more precise weather and surface data from the EURO1k model can contribute to planning and decision-making processes (IPB/PBP) in the military land domain. The project combines both natural and social sciences to gather reliable data and generate new, relevant knowledge. The Army’s School of Intelligence and Electronic Warfare is the professional authority in the Armed Forces (sponsor) for Project Gondul.
Contact persons
Øistein Johnsen
Nils Håheim-Saers
Reserve Officer
- Tromsø
niha@norceresearch.no
+47 970 74 340
